Thursday, November 4, 2010


Centers move in Kashmir depict one thing, sheer ignorance.

Counter insurgency is an intricate business. It begins with basic understanding of the subject. In a worst case scenario, at the apex of insurgency cycle, 40% to 45% people are pro Insurgents. 20% to 25 % are pro government too. Remaining 20% to 30 % are neutrals. Out of these 5% to 10% are fence sitters. Common counterinsurgency sense says that the effort has to be made by Govt and insurgents alike to , cajole ,influence the fence sitters. Add 5% to the insurgents influence and the revolution is ripe. The critical mass… Prevent these 5% from join the revolutionaries and the conflict extends.

As the conflicts get extended the insurgent support begins to wean. The supports start questioning the legitimacy of cause. Their faith in projected end state starts to wilt.

On the other hand the addition of the the 5 percent towards the government marks the reversal of the process. This creates precedence for the others to follow.

This results in frustration for the terrorist organization. As a result the tempo of terror increases which further intimidates the public. This creates a desirable situation for the government. This situation can be dexterously handled by government to create ground swell for peace.

The battle is to influence the fence sitters.

The four pronged strategy focuses at destruction of terrorist combat potential, containment of fence sitters, increase own support base and create groundswell for peace.

The military component of the strategy aims at separation of the military potential from support base and its subsequent destruction. The political process focuses as marginalization of the hardliners and creating new pro peace political structure. A Simultaneous addressing of the root cause of alienation puts things back in shape.

The Government of India has approached this problem in an inverted manner.

It is trying to appease the hardliners and alienate the common mass.

It must be understood that spending time and money on hardcore separatists is useless. What is more pertinent is taht Gilani Sahab, Masarat Alam Bhat et all do not represent common Kashmir masses.

The so called Kashmir Movement is restricted to parts of Kashmir Valley Only. It is limited to one section of the community, Kashmir’s. It enjoys negligible support from Gujjar, Bakkarwal,Paharis, Baltis and Laddakhis. So it cannot classically be termed as movement. Adding up people participating in engineered protest in a day maximum 5000-8000 people protest all over the Kashmir. For a state with 80 Lakh populations this figure works out to 0.1 per cent. I wonder how it could be called Insurgency.

News channels report the protest. One fine day let these people go to Uri, Kupwara, Lolab, Gures,Sonamarg, Gulmarg and report what is happening there. Ask common kashmiri who is suffering day to day what Gilani Sahab means to them their perception about all this chaos will change. In a nut shell the nation is being misled about Kashmir. The crux of the issue is to keep the conflict alive.

Too much of attention and too much of money has been pumped in without visualizing its use. Centre has impelled the tax payer’s money at the cost of development of less privileged states of the union. This money has been siphoned off by the power brokers to keep the Kashmir Terror Industry Alive. Of course they distribute the spoils amongst themselves.

The so called Media Mavericks should conduct sting on politicians and officials involved in this conflict and explain to the country their Rag to Riches stories. Go to the villages beyond NH1-B and see what people have to say about the Huriyat,Kasmiri Politics and Army.

Army has gained substantial goodwill ground by spending money from Defence budget on development work (What the state government should have), no wonder MR Abdulla feels threatened about it.

Army has been able to decapitate the military potential of the terrorist. Time is ripe for the center to realign the approach.

--- Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan

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