KASHMIR KAFKAESQUE

Centers move in Kashmir depict one thing, sheer ignorance.

Counter insurgency is an intricate business. It begins with basic understanding of the subject. In a worst case scenario, at the apex of insurgency cycle, 40% to 45% people are pro Insurgents. 20% to 25 % are pro government too. Remaining 20% to 30 % are neutrals. Out of these 5% to 10% are fence sitters. Common counterinsurgency sense says that the effort has to be made by Govt and insurgents alike to , cajole ,influence the fence sitters. Add 5% to the insurgents influence and the revolution is ripe. The critical mass… Prevent these 5% from join the revolutionaries and the conflict extends.

As the conflicts get extended the insurgent support begins to wean. The supports start questioning the legitimacy of cause. Their faith in projected end state starts to wilt.

On the other hand the addition of the the 5 percent towards the government marks the reversal of the process. This creates precedence for the others to follow.

This results in frustration for the terrorist organization. As a result the tempo of terror increases which further intimidates the public. This creates a desirable situation for the government. This situation can be dexterously handled by government to create ground swell for peace.

The battle is to influence the fence sitters.

The four pronged strategy focuses at destruction of terrorist combat potential, containment of fence sitters, increase own support base and create groundswell for peace.

The military component of the strategy aims at separation of the military potential from support base and its subsequent destruction. The political process focuses as marginalization of the hardliners and creating new pro peace political structure. A Simultaneous addressing of the root cause of alienation puts things back in shape.

The Government of India has approached this problem in an inverted manner.

It is trying to appease the hardliners and alienate the common mass.

It must be understood that spending time and money on hardcore separatists is useless. What is more pertinent is taht Gilani Sahab, Masarat Alam Bhat et all do not represent common Kashmir masses.

The so called Kashmir Movement is restricted to parts of Kashmir Valley Only. It is limited to one section of the community, Kashmir’s. It enjoys negligible support from Gujjar, Bakkarwal,Paharis, Baltis and Laddakhis. So it cannot classically be termed as movement. Adding up people participating in engineered protest in a day maximum 5000-8000 people protest all over the Kashmir. For a state with 80 Lakh populations this figure works out to 0.1 per cent. I wonder how it could be called Insurgency.

News channels report the protest. One fine day let these people go to Uri, Kupwara, Lolab, Gures,Sonamarg, Gulmarg and report what is happening there. Ask common kashmiri who is suffering day to day what Gilani Sahab means to them their perception about all this chaos will change. In a nut shell the nation is being misled about Kashmir. The crux of the issue is to keep the conflict alive.

Too much of attention and too much of money has been pumped in without visualizing its use. Centre has impelled the tax payer’s money at the cost of development of less privileged states of the union. This money has been siphoned off by the power brokers to keep the Kashmir Terror Industry Alive. Of course they distribute the spoils amongst themselves.

The so called Media Mavericks should conduct sting on politicians and officials involved in this conflict and explain to the country their Rag to Riches stories. Go to the villages beyond NH1-B and see what people have to say about the Huriyat,Kasmiri Politics and Army.

Army has gained substantial goodwill ground by spending money from Defence budget on development work (What the state government should have), no wonder MR Abdulla feels threatened about it.

Army has been able to decapitate the military potential of the terrorist. Time is ripe for the center to realign the approach.


--- Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan

Now Or Never

British were always obsessed with their superiority. Their failure in Second World War gave them a bloody nose. To sustain the empire “Where the sun did never set,” become economically unviable.
America was the new God, Basking under the glory of its victory in Europe. Together, the Brits and Yaks feared the neo Devil, Communism.
Oil was important for the recovery of war torn Europe. It was Middle East from where the oil came from. At this juncture ceding independence to India was a strategic risk. But if India was not liberated, it would have been direct pronunciation of Hypocrisy of western ideology of Liberty and Freedom. After all it was this philosophy for which Americans have fought the war.
Churchill administration was certain that an India under leadership of Mahatma will not allow them to operate military bases in South Asia. And these were needed.
So the conspiracy of partition of India was hatched. What all they needed was Baluchistan and NWFP. Since Baluchistan was technically Afgan territory and Pathnas were allied to Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan it was a difficult task.
The Idea of Pakistan saw light of the day.
It was a result of ambitions, distrust, misunderstanding on both sides; the Congress and the League, that partition of India became viable.
Radcliff did a brilliant Job. On close observation one can decipher the sinister design of the boundary. Kishangarh Buldge, juts into Pakistan where it is narrowest. Chicken neck, threaten Indian communication with Kashmir, Siliguri corridor is 80 Km wide and the Bay of Bengal is just 60 Km from Lungetlai salient.
The events during partition left a stigma which will take generations to wane. Who so ever stated it; both nations suffered, and are still suffering. To top it all Kashmir was invaded. Now if the British Commanding general of Indian and Pakistan army pleads ignorance, he is a liar. The nascent Pakistan was convinced by British that Kashmir or Part of it is necessary for their existence. One way it was. But the method employed in haste entangled the two nations in a 63 years old animosity.
We were Brothers and we could have settled it amicably.
If a policy for 63 years has produced no result. The policy has resulted in four wars. It is high time we need to relook at it. 63 years of hatred, why not give chance to love?

Now let us have a look at some facts.
In 2008-09 Pakistan allocated a sum of Rs 296 billion for defence. India laid down a defence budget 1.42 trillion rupees (28.4 billion dollars) in year 2010. Over the next 12 years, India is set to spend a whopping US$200 billion on defence acquisitions to replace its outdated inventory. This Money can be utilized for better purposes.
Here are some more recent comparative indicators:

One out of every three illiterate adults in the world is an Indian, according to UNESCO. Pakistan stands fourth in the world in terms of illiterate adult population, after India, China and Bangladesh.

One out of very two hungry persons in the world is an Indian, according to World Food Program. Pakistan fares significantly better than India on the hunger front.

Poverty:

Population living under $1.25 a day - India: 41.6% Pakistan: 22.6% Source: UNDP

The reason for higher levels of poverty in India in spite of its rapid economic growth is the growing rich-poor disparity. Gini indexmeasuring rich-poor gap for India is at 36, higher than Pakistan's 30. Gini index is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 100: A low Gini index indicates more equal income or wealth distribution, while a high Gini index indicates more unequal distribution. Zero corresponds to perfect equality (everyone having exactly the same income) and 100 corresponds to perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income).

Nutrition:

Underweight Children Under Five (in percent) Pakistan 38% India 46% Source: UNICEF

Health:

Life expectancy at birth (years), 2007 India: 63.4 Pakistan: 66.2 Source: HDR2009

Education:

Youth (15–24 years) literacy rate, 2000 to 2007, male Pakistan: 80% India 87% Source: UNICEF

Youth (15–24 years) literacy rate, 2000 to 2007, female Pakistan 60% India 77% Source: UNICEF

Economics:

GDP per capita (US$), 2008 Pak:$1000-1022 India $1017-1100

Child Protection:

Child marriage under 15-years ; 1998–2007*, total Pakistan - 32%India - 47% Source: UNICEF

Under-5 mortality rate per 1000 live births (2007), Value Pakistan - 90 India 72 Source: UNICEF

The time has come for us to make a choice. Weather we continue our attitude of mutual distrust and spend money preparing for a battle that is costing future of our nation.Or we reconcile our difference and work together for progress.
It is not that difficult also.
We start with India taking the initiative. Revamp Indus water treaty to establish Joint Hydro Electric Projects in Kashmir. India will provide Investment and Expertise and Pakistan will get Electricity and water. With a Hydroelectric potential of 28000 MWin Kashmir, Pakistan can easy get up to 8-10 Thousand Watts.
This should be followed by Pakistan closing its terrorist infrastructure. A joint commission for investigation of Anti India and Pakistani activities should be established hereafter.
Pakistan to provide India the status of most favored Nation. India should provide soft lone for revitalization of economic activity. India should invest in Pakistan. This should be followed by establishment of common free market, and if possible unified currency.
The visa regulation is next. Like EU a common citizenship card should be established for both nations.
During this period Military to military interaction should increase. Exchange program for Military establishment should take place. Further a joint command should be established for UN operations. Later this can be extended into joint South Asian Command.
We should aim at field a Joint team in 2023 Olympics.
Then we can talk about Kashmir.

(Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan)

Whose Kashmir is it Anyway . (Contours of Present Conflict)

The violence in Kashmir is a result of a dubious design. APHC stands at the apex of this paroxysmal display of lawlessness. And all political parties equally contribute to the chaos.

The unprecedented public support to Amarnath land row agitation initially gave APHC the glory it always dreamt off. Later as the public suffered the sheen started to wean away. The refusal of Pakistan to accept the horticultural produce of Kashmir, and simultaneous land blockade gave a strong dose of realities to the separatists. By the end of August 2008 the historic movement faded into oblivion. The lessons from this moment were simple and straight. The movement was successful in coercing all centers of power of Indian Union. The unsung hero of Gurkha Rifles who opened fire at the protesters who were trying to enter the Paribal complex of Rashtriya Rifles did send a message across Dont mess with the army.

The lessons were used to effect in 2009 where in the Sophiyan incident was exploited to set the furor. As the movement began to die the separatist were on lookout of new issues. One such attempt was made at Trehgam on 8 July 10, 2009 when the accidental death of Amina Massodi was exploited as a case or Rape and Murder by Armed forces.

http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/04/ballad-of-ashique-hussain-pir.html

The second incident happened at Baramulla. A woman whose brother had eloped with a neighbor was called at police station. The SO an old God fearing man spoke to her in a rash tone to produce the couple. She went out weeping. Within an hour the protestors took to street accusing that she was molested. The resulting perpetrated over the next few days resulted in death of four youths.

http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/03/jihad-ii.html

The stone pelting duels are intriguing to watch. Children of 8 to 15 years are paid upto 500 rupees a day for stone pelting. The younger the child the better it is. The police (Jammu and Kashmir Police) columns retreat. The stone palters move ahead. The police moves back further. Then, the police charges ahead, firing tear gas shells at the protestors. This goes on till it gets dark.
If the movement does not die its own death in few days, CRPF is inducted with a mandate to end the protest. These troops do not retreat. They stand their ground. If need be they fire rubber bullets and tear gas shells. The crowed buoyed by their victory pick up the fired tear gas shells and throw them back at CRPF. Then the shells are fired straight in a flat trajectory. The impact sometime proves to be fatal.

Then the fresh deaths propel the movement.

After Friday prayers, Down Town, Mausumia Srinagar, Hathikhan Mohalla, Chinkipora Sopore & Old Town Baramulla are rocked by violent protests. Rest of the valley remains entirely peaceful. If any death occurs the protests are prolonged.

Now we shall understand the timing and the design. The preparation for apple crops is completed by last week of May every year. The crop is watered, tendered and sale dead are completed by this time. The interim period upto August end the trades are free with an assured income. This period coincides with the Amarnath Yatra. The protest rock let me be specific Part of Srinagar, Sopore, Baramulla, where the writ of Jamat and APHC prevails. Remainder of the valley sulks by the suffering this will bring. The moment the apple crop is ready for dispatch, the protests come to an end.
The reality is, Militancy in Kashmir is dead. Local terrorists are not seen not heard .The infiltrated foreign terrorists are in hibernation to complete their two year tenure in valley. There are no Terrorists in sight to be killed. There is no actual violence. People have lost interest in this endless quagmire. They want betterment and peace. This threatens all those who yield power in the valley.
This year witnessed a new trend. The justification of their existence by the players of this game. It started with Chinkipora, Sopore. After the security forces (SF) operation was over, Gilani visited and distributed Rs 5 lakh to the effected family. Next day Yasin Malik visited and distributed Rs 9 lakh. The place was visited in quick succession by Mehbooba Mufti and other booty hunters. Similar trend was visible after incidents in Magum, Rafiabad. It is clearly written on the wall the whole issue is political. Gen Singh is of the same opinion.

Two incidents which has shaped the contours of the valley today are firstly are the response to Sophiyan incident by Omar Abdulla and apprehension and trial of BSF Commandant Randhir Kumar Virdi. They have sent a message across that the state is open to political coercion.

This series of protest will fizzle out by first week of September. This year infiltration has been at ebb. The resident terrorists are on back foot. The public is antagonized by the series of bandhs. The time is ripe for some strong political maneuver to bring this suffering to a logical conclusion.


Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan (chief - Research Wing)

26/11 -- what Pakistan stands to Gain from the Incident.

Ever since 26/11 i have been wondering what Pakistan stands to Gain from the Incident.

The Pakistani establishment was aware that such audacity can lead to war. With two Corps and party of strategic reserves committed to counter terrorist operations in West, the Professional Pakistan Army, i know would have never taken such a catastrophic risk.

Here is food for some thought:-


Drone Strikes

Between 2004- 2007 there were seven drone strikes. There were 17 Drone Strikes in 2008 prior to 26/11. There were 54 Drone Strikes in Pakistan in 2009 and deeper into hinterland. There has been 34 drone strikes up to may end this year.( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_attacks_in_Pakistan)

Pakistan has repeatedly protested these attacks as they are an infringement of its sovereignty and because civilian deaths have also resulted, including women and children, which has further angered the Pakistani government and people.
In September 28, a spokesman for the Pakistani army condemned Washington's killing of Pakistani civilians and warned of retaliatory action: "Border violations by US-led forces in Afghanistan, which have killed scores of Pakistani civilians, would no longer be tolerated, and we have informed them that we reserve the right to self defense and that we will retaliate if the US continues cross-border attacks.

However after 26/11/ 2008 the intensity of Drone attacks increased and Pakistani protest was muted.

David Coleman Headley, formerly known as Daood Sayed Gilani,

Gilani ran a video store in Philadelphia. In 1997 he was one of two men arrested for smuggling heroin into the country from Pakistan. In exchange for information about his Pakistani drug contacts, he received a considerably lighter sentence than his co-defendant: fifteen months in jail and five years of supervised release. In November 1998, Headley was delivered to the low-security Federal Correctional Institution in Fort Dix. However, his supervised release period was never completed. Instead, in November 2001, an assistant U.S. attorney applied to have Headley discharged. Headley traveled to Pakistan multiple times to conduct undercover surveillance operations for the Drug Enforcement Administration. In 2002 and three times in 2003, he attended Lashkar-e-Taiba training camps in Pakistan.
Indian investigators were surprised at how easily Headley had obtained a visa to enter India, a process that is extremely difficult for Pakistani nationals. Headley's U.S. passport, his new Christian sounding name, and the fact that the passport and his visa application made no mention of his prior name or nationality, made it easy for him to obtain an Indian visa from the Indian consulate in Chicago. He also falsely stated on his visa application that his father's name was William Headley and that his own name at birth was "Headley", a claim that was difficult to refute since the U.S. passport, unlike the Indian one, does not provide the father's name, and does not require endorsements on name changes by the passport holder.
Some Indian analysts have speculated that David Headley was a CIA Double agent within LeT, an accusation denied by the CIA. As soon as Headley was arrested in Chicago, the Indian media had a barrage of questions for the government about him, whose answers were slow in coming. Among other questions, Indian investigators wanted the FBI to share its tapes of Headley's communications with his Pakistani handlers to match with the voices taped on cell phones during the 2008 Mumbai attacks.
Following intense coverage and speculation in the Indian press, U.S. ambassador Timothy J. Roemer told reporters in New Delhi that the United States is working at the "highest level" to provide India access to Headley, even as it is passing along answers to questions in "real time”. The access is yet to happen.

Tahawwur Hussain Rana

Tahawwur Hussain Rana has served as captain in Pakistan Army, before becoming a citizen of Canada. He lives primarily in Chicago and owns several businesses including an immigration service agency.
Rana and David Coleman Headley were charged and arrested on 18 October 2009.

Hafiz Muhammad Saeed Amir LeT

Hafiz Muhammad Saeed was born in Sargodha to a conservative Pakistani Punjabi family. General Mohammad Zia-ul-Haq appointed Saeed to the Council on Islamic Ideology. He was sent to Saudi Arabia in the early 1980s by the university for higher studies where he met Saudi Sheikhs who were taking part in the Afghan jihad. They inspired him to join his colleague, Professor Zafar Iqbal, in taking an active role supporting the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan.

If ISI is not controlling LeT who is?

The Bigger question is Who controls ISI.

Contribution- Mr Skand Nayal Khan, NCCT (chief- research wing)

Perspective on Pakistan

Terrorism is a global scourge.

Pakistan is a nation which is suffering the most. As per SATP 8235 Civilians, 3081 Security force Personnel’s and 16410 Terrorists (Most of them Pakistanis) have been killed since 2003. There have been 218 Suicide attacks in the period between 2002 and 2009. In 2010, so far there have been 28 suicide attacks.

The operations launched by Pakistani Army in Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) (consists Bajaur Agency, Mohmand Agency, Khyber Agency, Orakzai Agency, Kurram Agency, North Waziristan Agency, South Waziristan Agency) ( Operation Rah E Nizat) and North West Frontier Agency ( Amb,Swat, Dir, Chitral, Bajaur, Phulera) (Operation Rah e Rast) resulted in mass internal displacement. As per latest UN OCHA update, some 1.9 million Internally Displaced People, (IDPs) has so far been confirmed by Pakistani authorities. About 260,000 IDPs are living in 27 camps and the remainders are with host families.

Pakistan is torn with internal strife and sectarian Violence. (116 People Killed in 26 Incidents in 2010), The Shia- Sunni Divide is enlarging day by day. Pakistani Economy is in tatters. It is needless to say that the county is undergoing a crisis situation.

Agreed, the Pakistani establishment and ISI are to be blamed. But it is the common people who are facing this wrath. They are being grinded d between the terrorist and the Government.

The Anti India Obsession is a state function. The common people of Pakistan have no time to engage in this rhetoric. They have more crucial issues to fight for. (Inflation remains the top concern among the public, jumping from 7.7% in 2007 to 20.8% in 2008, and 14.2% in 2009…CIA World Fact Book).

We should, see the things in clear perspective. There are three variables here: - The Pakistani Establishment (ISI, ARMY, and Politicians), the Fundamentalists and the Common People. The majority i.e. Common People of Pakistan are being misguided by Establishment by use of Fundamentalist as an effective deception for their failed policies.

We should stand for People of Pakistan.

We should expose the deceit of the Pakistani Establishment by directing our protest against it directly. No reference to Nation of Pakistan should be made directly in loose term.
We respect sovereignty of our Neighbour Pakistan. We want Peace, stability and Harmony. We are prepared to work for it. But we stand against those in Pakistan who pose challenge to Indian sovereignty.

__________ Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan (Chief - research Wing, NCCT)




then question from Sarv Shresth Sumit ( a ncct activist)

Sarv Shresth Sumit -from your description , I understand that the story in Pakistan at present is similar to what it was in India during the Raj ......"a hand full of men in power violate the right of an unorganized minority"

Maybe u r right but going by that example , the "oppressed majority " came together , revolted , fought for its right and claimed the independence it deserved .... all fine upto this point .... but extend your example to the "the oppressed majority in Pakistan" and the story is totally different -- no rebellion , no strife no support or word of sympathy for those nations who suffer from Pak bred terror ....as if it is totally acceptable . You are not justified if you try to glorify people who silently approve the wrong doers :((((


Reply (Mr Skand Nayal Khan)---


... are we not to blame for same? " People who silently approve the wrong doers." 84 - Delhi, 93 Uttarakhand, Gujarat... the list is endless.
Did we approve of what is listed above? The answer is NO.

Pakistan was created on the Pretext of " Safe Motherland For Muslims of South Asia." The so called two nation theory fell flat on face in October 47 when so called Kabayalis invaded Kashmir and unleashed Rape , Loot and Mayhem at Uri, Baramulla, Pattan, Shaitaing.The creation of Bangladesh as a result of attrocities and ego of West Pakistani elite was anail in the coffin of the Two Nation theory.

Now when we look at it where does Shri Md Ali Zinna, Quaid E Azam stands. The so called Hindu India has more Muslims than total population of Pakistan. Even though the findings of Sacchar Committee were alarming but our Muslim brothers are much well off than in Pakistan. We had Presidents, Vice President, Minters, Deputy Chief of Army Staff who followed Islam.

Can Pakistani establishment name one high ranking Hindu/ Sikh/ Christian official?

So a nation standing on a shallow foundation has to justify its existence. HATE INDIA is the magic mantra.The establishment has launched a systematic propaganda to cover their inefficiency and divert public attention.Unfortunately we are an extended audience to it in reciprocity.

Take the much ado over Water of Indus Water System. Pakistan Foreign Ministry, Indus water Commission are on record that Pakistan is getting much more than the maximum laid down water. But JuD chief is threatening to make it a public issue, India is depriving Pakistan of rightful water distribution.

The poor public believes it.

After all we all are decedents of Raja Ram who sent Sita to exile on hearsay.



Sarv Shresth Sumit --- Descendants of Raja Ram sure we all are but over the centuries many have degenerated in morals and values (these words are passe ) and thence the suffering ........... Sir you have a valid point when you say India has greater and more prospering no. of muslims . But then what is the reason ?? In all probability it's democracy and quoting what you've said

"Pakistan was created on the Pretext of " Safe Motherland For Muslims of South Asia." ..... " it is but natural that the state-machinery there failed .

I agree that India isn't surely the example of a well managed democracy , but then we haven't made efforts to make our rights , our laws and constitution known to every citizen . I am an engineer and to know technology better I attend several Workshops and conferences on the subject of interest ..but is it the same with Law ??? do we have workshops being held day to day to keep us updated of Laws that we must know at our age ??? I haven't heard of them :((

@Desh : ur efforts are incredible "to save a girl child" . Its always so nice to be a part of an ongoing movement against the evil but being a Law student if you also take up the responsibility to make the youth Law-aware , it will be a unique effort :)))




Skand Nayal Khan ---India is a young nation. We started way back in 47 with 12% literacy and virtually no middle class. Today we have 61% literates ( 76.9% for men and 54.5% for women) and a growing middle class. By 2020 it is expected we will be 100% literates and a stronger middle class.

This means our legislature will have more Literates. More people will vote and wisely.( We should amend our constitution and make Voting a fundamental duty, an avoiding polling without a valid reason an offense).

So our democracy has only one way to go- up.

The interference of Global Players in Pakistan has devastated the Nation. It is on the records (The Shadow of the Great Game – The Untold Story of India’s Partition by Narendra Singh Saril), that Britishers and America wanted military bases in South Asia to contain Communist Expansion,and Oil Hegemony.Republic of India under Gandhiji and Nehru were unlikely to cede to this demand.
So the state of Pakistan was created. Quaid E Azam Shri Mohammad Ali Jinnah was their proxy to divide India.

It is ironical that none of the Muslim Majority state support Jinnah,s League. League found support in Muslim minority states such as United province( UP, Uttarkhand) , Central Province( MP),Bihar.All these states are a part of India( they could not have been transferd being Hindu Dominated States), and Punjab, NWFP, Baluchistan, Sindh which were not pro partition went to Pakistan.

Jinnah realized his mistake on deathbed.Liyakat Ali Khan shared the realization.Jinnah died, Liyakat Ali Khan was Killed.
J&K was invaded and a perennial conflict was sown in mind of the two nations by sinister design.


Shivangi Sharma -- khan saab....u r great.


Skand Nayal Khan --- Shivangi ji, i just brought the fact, greatness is in your perception.