KASHMIR KAFKAESQUE

Centers move in Kashmir depict one thing, sheer ignorance.

Counter insurgency is an intricate business. It begins with basic understanding of the subject. In a worst case scenario, at the apex of insurgency cycle, 40% to 45% people are pro Insurgents. 20% to 25 % are pro government too. Remaining 20% to 30 % are neutrals. Out of these 5% to 10% are fence sitters. Common counterinsurgency sense says that the effort has to be made by Govt and insurgents alike to , cajole ,influence the fence sitters. Add 5% to the insurgents influence and the revolution is ripe. The critical mass… Prevent these 5% from join the revolutionaries and the conflict extends.

As the conflicts get extended the insurgent support begins to wean. The supports start questioning the legitimacy of cause. Their faith in projected end state starts to wilt.

On the other hand the addition of the the 5 percent towards the government marks the reversal of the process. This creates precedence for the others to follow.

This results in frustration for the terrorist organization. As a result the tempo of terror increases which further intimidates the public. This creates a desirable situation for the government. This situation can be dexterously handled by government to create ground swell for peace.

The battle is to influence the fence sitters.

The four pronged strategy focuses at destruction of terrorist combat potential, containment of fence sitters, increase own support base and create groundswell for peace.

The military component of the strategy aims at separation of the military potential from support base and its subsequent destruction. The political process focuses as marginalization of the hardliners and creating new pro peace political structure. A Simultaneous addressing of the root cause of alienation puts things back in shape.

The Government of India has approached this problem in an inverted manner.

It is trying to appease the hardliners and alienate the common mass.

It must be understood that spending time and money on hardcore separatists is useless. What is more pertinent is taht Gilani Sahab, Masarat Alam Bhat et all do not represent common Kashmir masses.

The so called Kashmir Movement is restricted to parts of Kashmir Valley Only. It is limited to one section of the community, Kashmir’s. It enjoys negligible support from Gujjar, Bakkarwal,Paharis, Baltis and Laddakhis. So it cannot classically be termed as movement. Adding up people participating in engineered protest in a day maximum 5000-8000 people protest all over the Kashmir. For a state with 80 Lakh populations this figure works out to 0.1 per cent. I wonder how it could be called Insurgency.

News channels report the protest. One fine day let these people go to Uri, Kupwara, Lolab, Gures,Sonamarg, Gulmarg and report what is happening there. Ask common kashmiri who is suffering day to day what Gilani Sahab means to them their perception about all this chaos will change. In a nut shell the nation is being misled about Kashmir. The crux of the issue is to keep the conflict alive.

Too much of attention and too much of money has been pumped in without visualizing its use. Centre has impelled the tax payer’s money at the cost of development of less privileged states of the union. This money has been siphoned off by the power brokers to keep the Kashmir Terror Industry Alive. Of course they distribute the spoils amongst themselves.

The so called Media Mavericks should conduct sting on politicians and officials involved in this conflict and explain to the country their Rag to Riches stories. Go to the villages beyond NH1-B and see what people have to say about the Huriyat,Kasmiri Politics and Army.

Army has gained substantial goodwill ground by spending money from Defence budget on development work (What the state government should have), no wonder MR Abdulla feels threatened about it.

Army has been able to decapitate the military potential of the terrorist. Time is ripe for the center to realign the approach.


--- Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan

Whose Kashmir is it Anyway . (Contours of Present Conflict)

The violence in Kashmir is a result of a dubious design. APHC stands at the apex of this paroxysmal display of lawlessness. And all political parties equally contribute to the chaos.

The unprecedented public support to Amarnath land row agitation initially gave APHC the glory it always dreamt off. Later as the public suffered the sheen started to wean away. The refusal of Pakistan to accept the horticultural produce of Kashmir, and simultaneous land blockade gave a strong dose of realities to the separatists. By the end of August 2008 the historic movement faded into oblivion. The lessons from this moment were simple and straight. The movement was successful in coercing all centers of power of Indian Union. The unsung hero of Gurkha Rifles who opened fire at the protesters who were trying to enter the Paribal complex of Rashtriya Rifles did send a message across Dont mess with the army.

The lessons were used to effect in 2009 where in the Sophiyan incident was exploited to set the furor. As the movement began to die the separatist were on lookout of new issues. One such attempt was made at Trehgam on 8 July 10, 2009 when the accidental death of Amina Massodi was exploited as a case or Rape and Murder by Armed forces.

http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/04/ballad-of-ashique-hussain-pir.html

The second incident happened at Baramulla. A woman whose brother had eloped with a neighbor was called at police station. The SO an old God fearing man spoke to her in a rash tone to produce the couple. She went out weeping. Within an hour the protestors took to street accusing that she was molested. The resulting perpetrated over the next few days resulted in death of four youths.

http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/03/jihad-ii.html

The stone pelting duels are intriguing to watch. Children of 8 to 15 years are paid upto 500 rupees a day for stone pelting. The younger the child the better it is. The police (Jammu and Kashmir Police) columns retreat. The stone palters move ahead. The police moves back further. Then, the police charges ahead, firing tear gas shells at the protestors. This goes on till it gets dark.
If the movement does not die its own death in few days, CRPF is inducted with a mandate to end the protest. These troops do not retreat. They stand their ground. If need be they fire rubber bullets and tear gas shells. The crowed buoyed by their victory pick up the fired tear gas shells and throw them back at CRPF. Then the shells are fired straight in a flat trajectory. The impact sometime proves to be fatal.

Then the fresh deaths propel the movement.

After Friday prayers, Down Town, Mausumia Srinagar, Hathikhan Mohalla, Chinkipora Sopore & Old Town Baramulla are rocked by violent protests. Rest of the valley remains entirely peaceful. If any death occurs the protests are prolonged.

Now we shall understand the timing and the design. The preparation for apple crops is completed by last week of May every year. The crop is watered, tendered and sale dead are completed by this time. The interim period upto August end the trades are free with an assured income. This period coincides with the Amarnath Yatra. The protest rock let me be specific Part of Srinagar, Sopore, Baramulla, where the writ of Jamat and APHC prevails. Remainder of the valley sulks by the suffering this will bring. The moment the apple crop is ready for dispatch, the protests come to an end.
The reality is, Militancy in Kashmir is dead. Local terrorists are not seen not heard .The infiltrated foreign terrorists are in hibernation to complete their two year tenure in valley. There are no Terrorists in sight to be killed. There is no actual violence. People have lost interest in this endless quagmire. They want betterment and peace. This threatens all those who yield power in the valley.
This year witnessed a new trend. The justification of their existence by the players of this game. It started with Chinkipora, Sopore. After the security forces (SF) operation was over, Gilani visited and distributed Rs 5 lakh to the effected family. Next day Yasin Malik visited and distributed Rs 9 lakh. The place was visited in quick succession by Mehbooba Mufti and other booty hunters. Similar trend was visible after incidents in Magum, Rafiabad. It is clearly written on the wall the whole issue is political. Gen Singh is of the same opinion.

Two incidents which has shaped the contours of the valley today are firstly are the response to Sophiyan incident by Omar Abdulla and apprehension and trial of BSF Commandant Randhir Kumar Virdi. They have sent a message across that the state is open to political coercion.

This series of protest will fizzle out by first week of September. This year infiltration has been at ebb. The resident terrorists are on back foot. The public is antagonized by the series of bandhs. The time is ripe for some strong political maneuver to bring this suffering to a logical conclusion.


Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan (chief - Research Wing)