KASHMIR KAFKAESQUE

Centers move in Kashmir depict one thing, sheer ignorance.

Counter insurgency is an intricate business. It begins with basic understanding of the subject. In a worst case scenario, at the apex of insurgency cycle, 40% to 45% people are pro Insurgents. 20% to 25 % are pro government too. Remaining 20% to 30 % are neutrals. Out of these 5% to 10% are fence sitters. Common counterinsurgency sense says that the effort has to be made by Govt and insurgents alike to , cajole ,influence the fence sitters. Add 5% to the insurgents influence and the revolution is ripe. The critical mass… Prevent these 5% from join the revolutionaries and the conflict extends.

As the conflicts get extended the insurgent support begins to wean. The supports start questioning the legitimacy of cause. Their faith in projected end state starts to wilt.

On the other hand the addition of the the 5 percent towards the government marks the reversal of the process. This creates precedence for the others to follow.

This results in frustration for the terrorist organization. As a result the tempo of terror increases which further intimidates the public. This creates a desirable situation for the government. This situation can be dexterously handled by government to create ground swell for peace.

The battle is to influence the fence sitters.

The four pronged strategy focuses at destruction of terrorist combat potential, containment of fence sitters, increase own support base and create groundswell for peace.

The military component of the strategy aims at separation of the military potential from support base and its subsequent destruction. The political process focuses as marginalization of the hardliners and creating new pro peace political structure. A Simultaneous addressing of the root cause of alienation puts things back in shape.

The Government of India has approached this problem in an inverted manner.

It is trying to appease the hardliners and alienate the common mass.

It must be understood that spending time and money on hardcore separatists is useless. What is more pertinent is taht Gilani Sahab, Masarat Alam Bhat et all do not represent common Kashmir masses.

The so called Kashmir Movement is restricted to parts of Kashmir Valley Only. It is limited to one section of the community, Kashmir’s. It enjoys negligible support from Gujjar, Bakkarwal,Paharis, Baltis and Laddakhis. So it cannot classically be termed as movement. Adding up people participating in engineered protest in a day maximum 5000-8000 people protest all over the Kashmir. For a state with 80 Lakh populations this figure works out to 0.1 per cent. I wonder how it could be called Insurgency.

News channels report the protest. One fine day let these people go to Uri, Kupwara, Lolab, Gures,Sonamarg, Gulmarg and report what is happening there. Ask common kashmiri who is suffering day to day what Gilani Sahab means to them their perception about all this chaos will change. In a nut shell the nation is being misled about Kashmir. The crux of the issue is to keep the conflict alive.

Too much of attention and too much of money has been pumped in without visualizing its use. Centre has impelled the tax payer’s money at the cost of development of less privileged states of the union. This money has been siphoned off by the power brokers to keep the Kashmir Terror Industry Alive. Of course they distribute the spoils amongst themselves.

The so called Media Mavericks should conduct sting on politicians and officials involved in this conflict and explain to the country their Rag to Riches stories. Go to the villages beyond NH1-B and see what people have to say about the Huriyat,Kasmiri Politics and Army.

Army has gained substantial goodwill ground by spending money from Defence budget on development work (What the state government should have), no wonder MR Abdulla feels threatened about it.

Army has been able to decapitate the military potential of the terrorist. Time is ripe for the center to realign the approach.


--- Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan

JIHAD 2

He was barely a teen
his oversized Phiran concealed his true age
along many of his age
he stood defiant on the Cement Bridge
in Baramulla Old Town.
It was a Medieval war Zone
With Gladiators from Kashmir Police
and Ragdo- Ragdo paladins
stood facing each other in uneasy silence
often rattled with Hindustan Murdabad War cries.

The stones rained like wrath
and partisan phalanx persisted
over the retracting steps of the police
a smile blossomed on his face
and his eyes twinkled
he has earned his day.
He set from his house in the morning
to stroll at dusty banks of Jhelum
when a Jamite entrepreneur
promised him Rs 100 for the day.

Huriyat budget for the days Armageddon was
Rs twenty five thousand
for fifty stone palters at Rs five hundred each
and Rs Ten thousand for the stones
The pimp hired 30 children for Rs hundred each
And made a staggering profit
stone were locally available.

The crescendo of victory was deafening
the Police was retracting
the bridge was theirs.

Then the charioteers arrived
the armored jeeps with tear gas dispensers
fired a salvo on the champions
as smoke bellowed
some canisters were thrown into Jhelum
some hurled back at police
amidst cheers of defiance.

He was on the front line
Cheering and shouting
When He felt an impact on his chest
And pain shot through his body
And he fell down on the bridge
A smoke canister had hit him on his chest.

He gripped his hand tight
To clinch the hundred rupee note
He tried to get up
And run away
To his home
And shove his earnings
Into the jam tin piggy bank
But failed
He looked around the retracting footsteps of his peers
and menacingly advancing charioteers
and made another effort
to crawl to his father
but his limbs failed
his eyes were wet with helplessness
he prayed
to be carried back
to his mother.

He remained there
motionless
on the cement bridge

"If anyone slew an innocent person it would be as if he slew the whole mankind and if anyone saved a life it would be as if he saved the life of the whole mankind"
[Al-Qur’an 5:32]


(Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan)

JIHAD 1

Locust
in Neelum Valley
are awaiting
to swarm the Vale
in hordes
to devour of what remains.
Armed with scourge of sycophancy
on a path of sublime salvation
of virgins and vistas
to bequeath apocalyptic wrath
on non believers of lesser Gods.
Permeate they will loC
“Facing fearful odds
Trample ashes of their fathers
Rout temples of their Gods”
submit soil sterile
with
coercive cordite
sinisterly slaughter saplings
bleach brotherhood barren
Deliver demonic design
………………………………………
Hope is Handicapped
snows on shamshabari is melting fast

(contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan)

Pipe Pipers of Jihad…

In the apple orchard of
Pahalan, Pattan Kashmir
Children
young and tender
played
Terrorist –Army
………
Sharik and Umer were Mujahidins
They established a Hide in the Barn
And Army
Ilakh,Abdu,Yakub and Salim
Were informed to
Spin a fool proof yarn
The hide was cordoned
Mujahidin opened fire
With planks of apple chest as mock guns
The army fired too
And Umer was judged shaeed
But Sharik escaped to
Continue his deed
……..
Cheater said Sailm
We fired at you
We killed you Goon
You cannot escape alive
Stupid
Said Sharik
a Cat has Nine lives…

Friend they were
Thick bum chums
They played,
They wandered around
They bunked the school
Till one day the headmaster
Caught them loafing around
He reprimanded them
He told them to
Come to school with parents

The friends were shocked
How to tell their parents
They were not attending school
What to do
How to get out of this impasse that ruled

Lets tell them the truth
Said Yakub
And plea for mercy this time
Sissy you Said Salim
We will not bend nor beg
Umer said there is no way
Lets tell our parents and see
Whatever will be will be
Whatever will be Abdu retorted
We will be beaten to pulp and blue
This is certainly not the thing
I will agree to do
What is the way out?
Said they together in doubt

There is one way Sharik said
Wit twinkle in his eyes
But you all are a bunch of softies
For you it holds no tie
I will at dawn tomorrow
Cross LoC at closest
and reach Pakistan
Will become a Mujahidin then
And return with Gun and fame
You kids will see
My Charisma and my name

Ha said Umer,
is it easy as you said
The snow on hills is Fresh and deep
Soon we will be dead

No, replied the Wise Sharik
Do you think I am naive?
We will cross Not from Gulmarg
But Tangdhar and get save
I overheard my uncle who
Works over ground
Lot of gaps in LoC fence
Are there to be found
But all this will cost some money
Said Yakub
We have nothing
… it is funny

Hold, said Sharik
Tuning his pockets out
Fished currency notes
Now is there any doubt
From where you got so much of money
Asked all his friends together
I help few Mujahidin
Sharik Replied
With beaming Proud In his eyes
When they were in rough weather
I guided them
From village to Jungles
Away from army camp
I even carried an AK
And held it close to my heart
They smiled at me
And hugged me close
And gave this to me
Did when we part

The boys watched him
With surprised gaze
Their eyes lit
With hopeful Rays
So
Sharik Asked
Who all are Men Enough?
To come with me
…………………………….
And who is a eunuch…
One by one
all agreed to go
early morning tomorrow they shall leave
it was decided so….
…………………………….

Journey from Pattan to Kupwara
Coasted fortune they had
They sat on the main market
Hungry heartbroken and sad

Now what shall be done?
was there any way
to cross the Samshabari
they asked Sharik in Dismay?
Sharik replied with conviction
We will go to the nearest Mosque
And when people come for namaz
Implore them
that we are holy warriors
And ask for Zakat

They walked to the Mosque
And found no one there
It was 9 30 in Moring
So no one offered prayer
Sharik in zest to prove him
Gave premature Azaan
And Maulvi Sadakat
Came rushing with chagrin and disdain
But when he saw these children
He was perplexed as can be
Who gave the Azan he inquired
Without asking me
The boys confused by now
Pushed Sharik ahead
And frightened, told the Maulvi
What he had sad
Amazed was the Maulvi
And told them to sit down
Walked out to arrange some food
With an anxious frown
After the children had eaten
He asked Sharik the reason
To lead this group of novices
For an act of treason
Treason! Shouted Sharik
You are a man of faith
How dare you dissuade holy warriors?
Who tread the path of Jihad

Jihad,
The maulvi smiled
He told Sharik to sit down
And ask the children
Why they had quit their homes
When he came to know
Their plight
He spoke to them
“You are running away from you primary duty
This is to obtain education
And grow up as responsible Humans
This is your Jihad
Islam stands for Brotherhood
Islam stands for belief
Islam teaches Compassion
Islam teaches Peace
What brings you here is not pious
Go back to your homes
You children
And spread smiles
Around
Spread hope
Be Allah the Merciful be with you
………
The children were sent back home
Their parents were amazed
A thousand Questions in their conscious
Were raised
……………………………………..


This is a true incident. These children ran away from their home to escape from punishment at the school. What is unusual here is these children wanted to go to POK (Azad Kashmir, Whatever you want to call it), and get enrolled as Mujahidin. This is a sad situation, wherein the children who should be groomed as future of Kashmir are made to think such things.
The Kashmir movement now is fully controlled by Pakistan. Mostly Pakistani terrorists operate within the valley with impunity. Most of these are criminals, who have been given an option to choose between Gallows or Kashmir. They come here, stay for two to three years, enjoy what all can be pleasured. Some are killed and some go back. What is left behind is for Kashmir to suffer.


(Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan)

Now Or Never

British were always obsessed with their superiority. Their failure in Second World War gave them a bloody nose. To sustain the empire “Where the sun did never set,” become economically unviable.
America was the new God, Basking under the glory of its victory in Europe. Together, the Brits and Yaks feared the neo Devil, Communism.
Oil was important for the recovery of war torn Europe. It was Middle East from where the oil came from. At this juncture ceding independence to India was a strategic risk. But if India was not liberated, it would have been direct pronunciation of Hypocrisy of western ideology of Liberty and Freedom. After all it was this philosophy for which Americans have fought the war.
Churchill administration was certain that an India under leadership of Mahatma will not allow them to operate military bases in South Asia. And these were needed.
So the conspiracy of partition of India was hatched. What all they needed was Baluchistan and NWFP. Since Baluchistan was technically Afgan territory and Pathnas were allied to Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan it was a difficult task.
The Idea of Pakistan saw light of the day.
It was a result of ambitions, distrust, misunderstanding on both sides; the Congress and the League, that partition of India became viable.
Radcliff did a brilliant Job. On close observation one can decipher the sinister design of the boundary. Kishangarh Buldge, juts into Pakistan where it is narrowest. Chicken neck, threaten Indian communication with Kashmir, Siliguri corridor is 80 Km wide and the Bay of Bengal is just 60 Km from Lungetlai salient.
The events during partition left a stigma which will take generations to wane. Who so ever stated it; both nations suffered, and are still suffering. To top it all Kashmir was invaded. Now if the British Commanding general of Indian and Pakistan army pleads ignorance, he is a liar. The nascent Pakistan was convinced by British that Kashmir or Part of it is necessary for their existence. One way it was. But the method employed in haste entangled the two nations in a 63 years old animosity.
We were Brothers and we could have settled it amicably.
If a policy for 63 years has produced no result. The policy has resulted in four wars. It is high time we need to relook at it. 63 years of hatred, why not give chance to love?

Now let us have a look at some facts.
In 2008-09 Pakistan allocated a sum of Rs 296 billion for defence. India laid down a defence budget 1.42 trillion rupees (28.4 billion dollars) in year 2010. Over the next 12 years, India is set to spend a whopping US$200 billion on defence acquisitions to replace its outdated inventory. This Money can be utilized for better purposes.
Here are some more recent comparative indicators:

One out of every three illiterate adults in the world is an Indian, according to UNESCO. Pakistan stands fourth in the world in terms of illiterate adult population, after India, China and Bangladesh.

One out of very two hungry persons in the world is an Indian, according to World Food Program. Pakistan fares significantly better than India on the hunger front.

Poverty:

Population living under $1.25 a day - India: 41.6% Pakistan: 22.6% Source: UNDP

The reason for higher levels of poverty in India in spite of its rapid economic growth is the growing rich-poor disparity. Gini indexmeasuring rich-poor gap for India is at 36, higher than Pakistan's 30. Gini index is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 100: A low Gini index indicates more equal income or wealth distribution, while a high Gini index indicates more unequal distribution. Zero corresponds to perfect equality (everyone having exactly the same income) and 100 corresponds to perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income).

Nutrition:

Underweight Children Under Five (in percent) Pakistan 38% India 46% Source: UNICEF

Health:

Life expectancy at birth (years), 2007 India: 63.4 Pakistan: 66.2 Source: HDR2009

Education:

Youth (15–24 years) literacy rate, 2000 to 2007, male Pakistan: 80% India 87% Source: UNICEF

Youth (15–24 years) literacy rate, 2000 to 2007, female Pakistan 60% India 77% Source: UNICEF

Economics:

GDP per capita (US$), 2008 Pak:$1000-1022 India $1017-1100

Child Protection:

Child marriage under 15-years ; 1998–2007*, total Pakistan - 32%India - 47% Source: UNICEF

Under-5 mortality rate per 1000 live births (2007), Value Pakistan - 90 India 72 Source: UNICEF

The time has come for us to make a choice. Weather we continue our attitude of mutual distrust and spend money preparing for a battle that is costing future of our nation.Or we reconcile our difference and work together for progress.
It is not that difficult also.
We start with India taking the initiative. Revamp Indus water treaty to establish Joint Hydro Electric Projects in Kashmir. India will provide Investment and Expertise and Pakistan will get Electricity and water. With a Hydroelectric potential of 28000 MWin Kashmir, Pakistan can easy get up to 8-10 Thousand Watts.
This should be followed by Pakistan closing its terrorist infrastructure. A joint commission for investigation of Anti India and Pakistani activities should be established hereafter.
Pakistan to provide India the status of most favored Nation. India should provide soft lone for revitalization of economic activity. India should invest in Pakistan. This should be followed by establishment of common free market, and if possible unified currency.
The visa regulation is next. Like EU a common citizenship card should be established for both nations.
During this period Military to military interaction should increase. Exchange program for Military establishment should take place. Further a joint command should be established for UN operations. Later this can be extended into joint South Asian Command.
We should aim at field a Joint team in 2023 Olympics.
Then we can talk about Kashmir.

(Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan)

Whose Kashmir is it Anyway . (Contours of Present Conflict)

The violence in Kashmir is a result of a dubious design. APHC stands at the apex of this paroxysmal display of lawlessness. And all political parties equally contribute to the chaos.

The unprecedented public support to Amarnath land row agitation initially gave APHC the glory it always dreamt off. Later as the public suffered the sheen started to wean away. The refusal of Pakistan to accept the horticultural produce of Kashmir, and simultaneous land blockade gave a strong dose of realities to the separatists. By the end of August 2008 the historic movement faded into oblivion. The lessons from this moment were simple and straight. The movement was successful in coercing all centers of power of Indian Union. The unsung hero of Gurkha Rifles who opened fire at the protesters who were trying to enter the Paribal complex of Rashtriya Rifles did send a message across Dont mess with the army.

The lessons were used to effect in 2009 where in the Sophiyan incident was exploited to set the furor. As the movement began to die the separatist were on lookout of new issues. One such attempt was made at Trehgam on 8 July 10, 2009 when the accidental death of Amina Massodi was exploited as a case or Rape and Murder by Armed forces.

http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/04/ballad-of-ashique-hussain-pir.html

The second incident happened at Baramulla. A woman whose brother had eloped with a neighbor was called at police station. The SO an old God fearing man spoke to her in a rash tone to produce the couple. She went out weeping. Within an hour the protestors took to street accusing that she was molested. The resulting perpetrated over the next few days resulted in death of four youths.

http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/03/jihad-ii.html

The stone pelting duels are intriguing to watch. Children of 8 to 15 years are paid upto 500 rupees a day for stone pelting. The younger the child the better it is. The police (Jammu and Kashmir Police) columns retreat. The stone palters move ahead. The police moves back further. Then, the police charges ahead, firing tear gas shells at the protestors. This goes on till it gets dark.
If the movement does not die its own death in few days, CRPF is inducted with a mandate to end the protest. These troops do not retreat. They stand their ground. If need be they fire rubber bullets and tear gas shells. The crowed buoyed by their victory pick up the fired tear gas shells and throw them back at CRPF. Then the shells are fired straight in a flat trajectory. The impact sometime proves to be fatal.

Then the fresh deaths propel the movement.

After Friday prayers, Down Town, Mausumia Srinagar, Hathikhan Mohalla, Chinkipora Sopore & Old Town Baramulla are rocked by violent protests. Rest of the valley remains entirely peaceful. If any death occurs the protests are prolonged.

Now we shall understand the timing and the design. The preparation for apple crops is completed by last week of May every year. The crop is watered, tendered and sale dead are completed by this time. The interim period upto August end the trades are free with an assured income. This period coincides with the Amarnath Yatra. The protest rock let me be specific Part of Srinagar, Sopore, Baramulla, where the writ of Jamat and APHC prevails. Remainder of the valley sulks by the suffering this will bring. The moment the apple crop is ready for dispatch, the protests come to an end.
The reality is, Militancy in Kashmir is dead. Local terrorists are not seen not heard .The infiltrated foreign terrorists are in hibernation to complete their two year tenure in valley. There are no Terrorists in sight to be killed. There is no actual violence. People have lost interest in this endless quagmire. They want betterment and peace. This threatens all those who yield power in the valley.
This year witnessed a new trend. The justification of their existence by the players of this game. It started with Chinkipora, Sopore. After the security forces (SF) operation was over, Gilani visited and distributed Rs 5 lakh to the effected family. Next day Yasin Malik visited and distributed Rs 9 lakh. The place was visited in quick succession by Mehbooba Mufti and other booty hunters. Similar trend was visible after incidents in Magum, Rafiabad. It is clearly written on the wall the whole issue is political. Gen Singh is of the same opinion.

Two incidents which has shaped the contours of the valley today are firstly are the response to Sophiyan incident by Omar Abdulla and apprehension and trial of BSF Commandant Randhir Kumar Virdi. They have sent a message across that the state is open to political coercion.

This series of protest will fizzle out by first week of September. This year infiltration has been at ebb. The resident terrorists are on back foot. The public is antagonized by the series of bandhs. The time is ripe for some strong political maneuver to bring this suffering to a logical conclusion.


Contribution - Mr Skand Nayal Khan (chief - Research Wing)